cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/22189256
The latest data, for the first quarter of 2025, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable or falling for more than a year, as shown in the figure below.
However, with emissions remaining just 1% below the recent peak, it remains possible that they could jump once again to a new record high.
Outside of the power sector, emissions increased 3.5%, with the largest rises in the use of coal in the metals and chemicals industries.
Sector-by-sector analysis suggests that, in addition to the power sector, emissions have likely also peaked in the building materials and steel sectors, as well as oil products consumption.
China posts unexpectedly strong economic growth before tariffs bite
There’s a blind spot in your argument though. They shipped out everything they could before tariffs hit. Doesn‘t mean they produced all of that recently. They very likely slowed down production a while ago because of these economic uncertainties and instead focused on getting as much out of the country as possible of what they still had laying around. So yes the economy could make an unexpected jump before sliding down quickly. It‘s a bad thing for the economy mid term.